TY - GEN
T1 - Risk assessment method for flood control planning considering global climate change in urban river management
AU - Morita, Masaru
PY - 2013/9/9
Y1 - 2013/9/9
N2 - This study presents a methodology for assessing flood risks, dealing in particular with decreased risk achieved by flood protection projects and increased risk due to climate change in a framework of flood risk management for urban rivers. "Flood risk" is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. Flood inundations and their monetary damages are calculated with the Flood Damage Prediction Model (FDPM) using XP-SWMM. The increased cost of risk caused by climate change can be estimated from the difference between the potential damages before and after the predicted climate change using the Return Period Shift method. The change in risk cost is finally interpreted as a Flood Risk Impact Factor (FRIF) defined as the ratio of the change in risk cost to the present risk cost. The factor evaluates the changes in flood risk due to different causes using the same scale.
AB - This study presents a methodology for assessing flood risks, dealing in particular with decreased risk achieved by flood protection projects and increased risk due to climate change in a framework of flood risk management for urban rivers. "Flood risk" is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. Flood inundations and their monetary damages are calculated with the Flood Damage Prediction Model (FDPM) using XP-SWMM. The increased cost of risk caused by climate change can be estimated from the difference between the potential damages before and after the predicted climate change using the Return Period Shift method. The change in risk cost is finally interpreted as a Flood Risk Impact Factor (FRIF) defined as the ratio of the change in risk cost to the present risk cost. The factor evaluates the changes in flood risk due to different causes using the same scale.
KW - Climate change
KW - Flood risk assessment
KW - Flood risk impact factor
KW - Return period shift method
KW - Urban river management
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84883391083&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84883391083&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84883391083
SN - 9781907161353
T3 - IAHS-AISH Publication
SP - 107
EP - 116
BT - Floods
T2 - 5th International Conference on Flood Management, ICFM 2011
Y2 - 27 September 2011 through 29 September 2011
ER -