TY - JOUR

T1 - Odds theorem with multiple selection chances

AU - Ano, Katsunori

AU - Kakinuma, Hideo

AU - Miyoshi, Naoto

PY - 2010/12

Y1 - 2010/12

N2 - We study the multi-selection version of the so-called odds theorem by Bruss (2000). We observe a finite number of independent 0/1 (failure/success) random variables sequentially and want to select the last success. We derive the optimal selection rule when m (≥ 1) selection chances are given and find that the optimal rule has the form of a combination of multiple odds-sums. We provide a formula for computing the maximum probability of selecting the last success when we havemselection chances and also provide closed-form formulae for m = 2 and 3. For m = 2, we further give the bounds for the maximum probability of selecting the last success and derive its limit as the number of observations goes to ∞. An interesting implication of our result is that the limit of the maximum probability of selecting the last success for m = 2 is consistent with the corresponding limit for the classical secretary problem with two selection chances.

AB - We study the multi-selection version of the so-called odds theorem by Bruss (2000). We observe a finite number of independent 0/1 (failure/success) random variables sequentially and want to select the last success. We derive the optimal selection rule when m (≥ 1) selection chances are given and find that the optimal rule has the form of a combination of multiple odds-sums. We provide a formula for computing the maximum probability of selecting the last success when we havemselection chances and also provide closed-form formulae for m = 2 and 3. For m = 2, we further give the bounds for the maximum probability of selecting the last success and derive its limit as the number of observations goes to ∞. An interesting implication of our result is that the limit of the maximum probability of selecting the last success for m = 2 is consistent with the corresponding limit for the classical secretary problem with two selection chances.

KW - Multiple selection chances

KW - Optimal stopping

KW - Selecting the last success

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U2 - 10.1239/jap/1294170522

DO - 10.1239/jap/1294170522

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:80053431619

SN - 0021-9002

VL - 47

SP - 1093

EP - 1104

JO - Journal of Applied Probability

JF - Journal of Applied Probability

IS - 4

ER -